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Compare Magnite, PubMatic, The Trade Desk, Viant and Nexxen across reported revenue, net revenue and margins—with a five-year scenario model.
2023–25
Reported history
2026–30
Scenario forecast
USD millions · calendar years · modeled values marked E
Annual comparison
History meets the forecast
Metric
Scenario
Net revenue
Contribution ex-TAC for Magnite, Viant and Nexxen; GAAP revenue for PubMatic and The Trade Desk, whose relevant revenue is presented net.
MagnitePubMaticThe Trade DeskViantNexxenEstimate
Fastest base growth
Viant
20.0%2025–30E net revenue CAGR · base case2030E margin leader
Magnite
41%Adjusted EBITDA margin · base caseEnd-to-end platform
Nexxen
33%FY2025 adjusted EBITDA margin on contribution ex-TACLatest pulse
Q2 2026 snapshot
Quarterly results and updated guidance calibrate each company's forecast path.
| Company | Reported revenue | Net revenue | Adj. EBITDA margin | YoY signal | Model read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MagniteMGNI | $193M | $190M | 37% | +17%Net rev. YoY | CTV strength + raised FY26 ex-TAC outlook |
| PubMaticPUBM | $78.6M | $78.6M | 25% | +11%Revenue YoY | AI products + return to double-digit growth |
| The Trade DeskTTD | $715M | $715M | 34% | +3%Revenue YoY | Near-term reset; recovery begins in FY27 |
| ViantDSP | $104M | $60.2M | 24% | +24%Net rev. YoY | CTV + AI attention data drive share gains |
| NexxenNEXN | $101M | $97.8M | 28% | +11%Contribution ex-TAC YoY | Raised FY26 ex-TAC guidance; midpoint $395M |
Forecasting methodology
From run rate to terminal growth
Every estimate is produced by the same transparent sequence, then adjusted only for company-specific momentum and accounting presentation.
Set the base year
Every company begins with FY2025 reported results, using the closest comparable net-revenue measure alongside reported revenue.
Build the annual path
FY2026 uses guidance and Q2 run rates where available. Later growth rates converge toward a sustainable terminal rate based on recent history, scale and product momentum.
Apply scenarios
Revenuet = Revenuet−1 × (1 + base growtht + scenario shift). Bear subtracts 5 points; bull adds 4. Margins shift −3 or +2 points.
| Company | Forecast anchor | FY26 base growth | FY30 terminal growth | FY30 EBITDA margin | Primary model driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magnite | FY25A | +13.5% | +11.0% | 41.0% | CTV, contribution ex-TAC outlook |
| PubMatic | FY25A | +8.5% | +10.0% | 31.0% | Return to growth, AI product mix |
| The Trade Desk | FY25A | −1.6% | +12.0% | 40.0% | FY26 reset, recovery from FY27 |
| Viant | FY25A | +24.6% | +16.1% | 36.0% | CTV, AI and share gains |
| Nexxen | FY25A | +11.9% | +9.0% | 36.0% | Raised guidance, CTV, mobile and data growth |
Nexxen treatment: the company reports under IFRS and defines contribution ex-TAC as a non-IFRS measure. The dashboard uses that measure as the closest comparable net revenue. FY2026 is anchored to the $395M midpoint of guidance issued on August 12, 2026; later years are independent scenario estimates.
Scenario output
Net revenue
Base case
| Company | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E | 2030E | ’25–’30 CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magnite | $670M | $760M | $865M | $978M | $1.09B | $1.22B | 13% |
| PubMatic | $283M | $307M | $344M | $385M | $428M | $470M | 11% |
| The Trade Desk | $2.90B | $2.85B | $3.02B | $3.32B | $3.72B | $4.17B | 7.6% |
| Viant | $209M | $260M | $317M | $380M | $448M | $520M | 20% |
| Nexxen | $353M | $395M | $437M | $483M | $532M | $580M | 10% |
Read before comparing
Accounting-aware by design.
Ad-tech companies do not all recognize media costs the same way. This dashboard keeps reported revenue and the closest comparable net measure side by side, and never substitutes gross ad spend for recognised revenue.
01 Revenue definitions
Magnite, Viant and Nexxen: net revenue is company-reported contribution ex-TAC. PubMatic and The Trade Desk: GAAP revenue is already presented net for relevant media transactions. Nexxen reports its financial statements under IFRS.
02 Forecast method
The base case begins with FY2025 actuals. FY2026 incorporates guidance and Q2 run rates where disclosed; later growth converges toward company-specific terminal rates. Bull and bear scenarios add 4 or subtract 5 percentage points from each annual base growth rate and shift forecast margins +2 or −3 points.